Mask down

Now that vaccines turn out not to decrease the spread of Covid, governments of the world are back to commanding NPIs, Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions, like social distancing and wearing a mask.

The latter has become the loudest slogan: "Just wear a mask." We're bullied into accepting that one has to degrade their life by constantly wearing a piece of clothes indoors – and, in some cases, even outdoors. Failing to do that makes you a bad person for not doing your part in helping to stop the spread of the virus.

However, for mask mandates to have any rationale, they must first be proven to work. Do they?

The studies

A lot of the studies that conclude that public mask wearing slows the spread were published after the Covid pandemic started in early 2020. For reasons I elaborated on elsewhere, science in most cases is funded by governments and thus corrupted.

Indeed, these studies have several flaws.

One showed a decrease in infections right after the mask mandate was introduced but shortly after infections surged (while the mask mandate was still in vigor), which the study didn't mention. One of them draws conclusions from hospital staff using N95 respirators, a long shot from people wearing all kinds of masks in all sorts of ways.

Others don't correctly isolate confounding factors or ignore the rigorous methods scientific studies need to follow in order to arrive at the desired conclusion.

The only randomized controlled trial (the scientific "real deal") to date found no statistically significant reduction in infection in people who wore the mask. Three major medical journals refused to publish the study.

Not all studies are created equal, and there are myriad ways to botch one, even if one doesn't assume bad faith on the part of the study authors.

In real life

When discussing the mask topic with people, it's trivial to slide into a study duel. On the surface, it seems to make a lot of sense that if you cover the holes on your face, you're less likely to catch the virus or infect others. And there's no shortage of studies that will "prove" the point.

So I prefer to look at actual data, which we now have more than a year's worth - real people wearing real masks in real life.

Countless graphs track the number of infections (or hospitalizations) in time in specific countries, provinces, or states. Interestingly, one cannot tell when governments started mandating masks as there's no correlation between the two. You can take the test yourself to see this.

Hungary didn't require masks in tightly packed stadiums for the Euro 2020 during the summer of 2021, yet case numbers didn't rise.

Denmark lifted all restrictions on February 1st, 2022, and hospitalizations (the only thing that should matter) didn't rise. At the same time, in the era of the much milder Omicron and with populations vaccinated upwards of 70%, other countries were enacting harsher measures again, requiring masks to be worn.

And, of course, thou shalt not talk about Sweden. The Nordic country never had a mask mandate – the only restrictions they imposed were closing nursery homes at the outbreak of the virus and restricting large gatherings. Despite that, their excess mortality during the Covid-era is better than many other countries with way harsher restrictions, and on part with their neighbors.

Correlation and causation

We know correlation is not causation, but those in favor of mask-wearing make a stronger statement – they hold that public mask-wearing makes infection (and hospitalization) numbers go down. They claim causality and if we don't even see a correlation in many instances, they would need excellent arguments to support their case. The burden of proof should be on the side that makes the extraordinary claim and wants to introduce a new obligation.

If you're sick and suspect you spread the virus (any virus), stay home if you can. If not, drop the mask and enjoy breathing like a human.

(Originally written on Sep 19, 2021.)